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#61 [url]

Nov 9 16 10:41 AM

I was up all night watching it in horror! The reactions across the media and on Twitter were of people just stunned at how all the exit polls got it so wrong. I felt it would be close but this was something I never imagined! I'm not from the US but I've felt so sorry for the people there today and then for the rest of us cause who knows what Trump will do given how interconnected the world is now and the impact it can have on all of us.

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Colson

Posts: 18,954 FOMM Extraordinaire

#62 [url]

Nov 9 16 10:43 AM

The angry white people came out to vote and that decided it. They were tired of the 'establishment'. Blacks didn't turn out as much as they did for Obama and that was a problem.

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#63 [url]

Nov 9 16 10:45 AM

mimifan09 wrote:
I was up all night watching it in horror! The reactions across the media and on Twitter were of people just stunned at how all the exit polls got it so wrong. I felt it would be close but this was something I never imagined! I'm not from the US but I've felt so sorry for the people there today and then for the rest of us cause who knows what Trump will do given how interconnected the world is now and the impact it can have on all of us.
Thank you for having compassion for Americans. I am not only deeply ashamed, but I am actually scared to be an American. I hope that this whole world--not just the U.S.--can survive a Trump presidency, because we have no other choice now.

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Colson

Posts: 18,954 FOMM Extraordinaire

#64 [url]

Nov 9 16 11:09 AM

Pollsters suffer huge embarrassment

Pollsters and election modelers suffered an industry-shattering embarrassment at the hands of Donald Trump on Tuesday night.

Trump had long said the polls were biased against him. His claims – dismissed and mocked by the experts – turned out to be true.

“It’s going to put the polling industry out of business,” said CNN anchor Jake Tapper. “It’s going to put the voter projection industry out of business.”

Going into Election Day, a strong majority of pollsters and election modelers forecast that Hillary Clinton would coast to victory, with many predicting she would sweep the battlegrounds and win north of 300 electoral votes.

The final University of Virginia Center for Politics model had Clinton winning 322 electoral votes to 216 for Trump, with Clinton winning Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – all states that she lost.

Liberals lashed out at data guru Nate Silver for giving Trump a 35 percent chance of victory heading into Election Day, claiming he was putting his thumb on the scale for Trump by making the race appear closer than it was.

Of the 11 national polls to be released in the final week of the race, only two – a Los Angeles Times-USC survey and one from IBD/TIPP – showed Trump with the lead.

The L.A. Times survey was criticized as “experimental” by industry experts for polling the same pool of people and for the way it weighted black voters.

But for the second consecutive presidential cycle, the L.A. Times and IBD/TIPP surveys were among the most accurate, making them the gold standard going forward.

The rest of the polls showed Clinton with leads of between 2 points and 6 points, boosting the Democrat to a 3.3 point national lead in the RealClearPolitics average.

And the battleground data was just as biased against Trump.

There were no surveys released this year from Wisconsin that showed Trump with a lead.

Clinton held a 6.5 point lead in the Badger State heading into Election Day, and the state was not even discussed as on par with Michigan or Pennsylvania as a potential blue state pick-up for Trump.

Trump’s victory in Wisconsin — a state that has not gone for the GOP nominee since 1984 — helped him seal the deal.

In Michigan and Pennsylvania, deep blue states the GOP candidate has not won in decades, polls showed the race tightening in the home stretch, but only one poll, from Trafalgar Group, showed Trump with the lead.

Election modelers declined to flip either state into Trump’s column, even as the Clinton campaign rushed furiously to defend those states in the final days of the election.

And Trump won North Carolina by nearly 4 points, despite polls showing a toss-up there.

Many early reports coming out of the Tar Heel State bought the Clinton campaign’s spin that Hispanic turnout had spiked to such a degree that it would make up for a decline in early voting among African Americans.

The conventional wisdom among many pollsters was that the race would be somewhat close nationally — in the two to three point range — with Clinton running the table, as President Obama did, in the battleground states that determine the outcome.

But state after state told the same story for Trump and Clinton.

White working class voters — the silent majority that Trump said was being underestimated by pollsters — swarmed for him on Election Day, particularly in the Rust Belt states, and helped him beat the polls.

Clinton could not turn out women, or the Obama coalition of minorities and young voters, in the same numbers to keep pace.

Pollster John Zogby believes that many in the industry weighted their polls too heavily in favor of Democrats, pointing to polls that had an 8 to 9 point advantage for the party, when it should have been in the 4 to 5 point range, he said.

It’s a claim that Trump made throughout the process.

But pollsters largely dismissed that notion, saying that Democrats turn out in larger numbers in a presidential election year and that Republicans were losing registered voters, who were increasingly identifying as independents.

That assumption will have to be reexamined.

Furthermore, many pollsters confidently predicted that women would reject Trump and vote in favor of Clinton’s history-making candidacy in record numbers.

An Associated Press analysis found Clinton bested Trump by 13 points among women — no better than the margin Obama got in 2008 or 2012.

Trump, meanwhile, got the support of 70 percent of white men without a college education, besting Mitt Romney’s showing by 10 points, the AP study found.

Whereas Obama received about 33 percent support from white men without a college degree, Clinton received just over 20 percent support.

Democratic strategist Steve Schale, an expert on Florida politics, said that in Volusia County, Florida, Trump beat Clinton among whites by 34,000. Obama won whites there in 2008 by nearly 14,000 there.

Few models or polls predicted there would be enough white voters to turn out to counterbalance demographic trends that were believed to tilt heavily in Clinton’s favor.

It is also possible that the third-party candidates – long forgotten by pollsters as they faded down the stretch – will end up having an outsized impact on the race.

Libertarian Gary Johnson took more than 3.5 percent support in Wisconsin and Michigan, enough to make up the difference between Trump and Clinton. He took 2.5 percent support in Pennsylvania, which was decided by about 1 point.

Whatever the reason, pollsters will have to reassess after a dismal showing in 2016 that produced a result almost no one foresaw.

would coast to victory, with many predicting she would sweep the battlegrounds and win north of 300 electoral votes.

The final University of Virginia Center for Politics model had Clinton winning 322 electoral votes to 216 for Trump, with Clinton winning Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – all states that she lost.

Liberals lashed out at data guru Nate Silver for giving Trump a 35 percent chance of victory heading into Election Day, claiming he was putting his thumb on the scale for Trump by making the race appear closer than it was.

Of the 11 national polls to be released in the final week of the race, only two – a Los Angeles Times-USC survey and one from IBD/TIPP – showed Trump with the lead.

The L.A. Times survey was criticized as “experimental” by industry experts for polling the same pool of people and for the way it weighted black voters.

But for the second consecutive presidential cycle, the L.A. Times and IBD/TIPP surveys were among the most accurate, making them the gold standard going forward.

The rest of the polls showed Clinton with leads of between 2 points and 6 points, boosting the Democrat to a 3.3 point national lead in the RealClearPolitics average.

And the battleground data was just as biased against Trump.

There were no surveys released this year from Wisconsin that showed Trump with a lead.

Clinton held a 6.5 point lead in the Badger State heading into Election Day, and the state was not even discussed as on par with Michigan or Pennsylvania as a potential blue state pick-up for Trump.

Trump’s victory in Wisconsin — a state that has not gone for the GOP nominee since 1984 — helped him seal the deal.

In Michigan and Pennsylvania, deep blue states the GOP candidate has not won in decades, polls showed the race tightening in the home stretch, but only one poll, from Trafalgar Group, showed Trump with the lead.

Election modelers declined to flip either state into Trump’s column, even as the Clinton campaign rushed furiously to defend those states in the final days of the election.

And Trump won North Carolina by nearly 4 points, despite polls showing a toss-up there.

Many early reports coming out of the Tar Heel State bought the Clinton campaign’s spin that Hispanic turnout had spiked to such a degree that it would make up for a decline in early voting among African Americans.

The conventional wisdom among many pollsters was that the race would be somewhat close nationally — in the two to three point range — with Clinton running the table, as President Obama did, in the battleground states that determine the outcome.

But state after state told the same story for Trump and Clinton.

White working class voters — the silent majority that Trump said was being underestimated by pollsters — swarmed for him on Election Day, particularly in the Rust Belt states, and helped him beat the polls.

Clinton could not turn out women, or the Obama coalition of minorities and young voters, in the same numbers to keep pace.

Pollster John Zogby believes that many in the industry weighted their polls too heavily in favor of Democrats, pointing to polls that had an 8 to 9 point advantage for the party, when it should have been in the 4 to 5 point range, he said.

It’s a claim that Trump made throughout the process.

But pollsters largely dismissed that notion, saying that Democrats turn out in larger numbers in a presidential election year and that Republicans were losing registered voters, who were increasingly identifying as independents.

That assumption will have to be reexamined.

Furthermore, many pollsters confidently predicted that women would reject Trump and vote in favor of Clinton’s history-making candidacy in record numbers.

An Associated Press analysis found Clinton bested Trump by 13 points among women — no better than the margin Obama got in 2008 or 2012.

Trump, meanwhile, got the support of 70 percent of white men without a college education, besting Mitt Romney’s showing by 10 points, the AP study found.

Whereas Obama received about 33 percent support from white men without a college degree, Clinton received just over 20 percent support.

Democratic strategist Steve Schale, an expert on Florida politics, said that in Volusia County, Florida, Trump beat Clinton among whites by 34,000. Obama won whites there in 2008 by nearly 14,000 there.

Few models or polls predicted there would be enough white voters to turn out to counterbalance demographic trends that were believed to tilt heavily in Clinton’s favor.

It is also possible that the third-party candidates – long forgotten by pollsters as they faded down the stretch – will end up having an outsized impact on the race.

Libertarian Gary Johnson took more than 3.5 percent support in Wisconsin and Michigan, enough to make up the difference between Trump and Clinton. He took 2.5 percent support in Pennsylvania, which was decided by about 1 point.

Whatever the reason, pollsters will have to reassess after a dismal showing in 2016 that produced a result almost no one foresaw.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/305133-pollsters-suffer-huge-embarrassment

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#65 [url]

Nov 9 16 11:41 AM

I can't handle this. What's most infuriating are some of the people I see celebrating and saying things like "The people are going to take America back!" WHAT people?! And back from who?!

The blame falls on uneducated white people. They don't have enough brain power or information to know that Obama turned America into a far better direction over the past 8 years than it had been on during the Bush years. I'm heartbroken to think all of this progress may be overturned.

Literally, g-d help us all

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#66 [url]

Nov 9 16 11:42 AM

We're f*cked.

[USERNAME REMOVED BY REQUEST] wrote:
Mariah Carey On Rihanna: "I love Rihanna, I am a fan. I love that she is who she is, she's a superstar and she just lives as herself."


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Kevon

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Posts: 40,369 'Showing receipts and offering seats'

#67 [url]

Nov 9 16 12:01 PM

I wonder how long it will take him to undo all the progress that has been made? Or has he already?



Wrapped up in a shady tortilla

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carlos b fly

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Posts: 24,481 You'll never be ready. Memba I told you!

#69 [url]

Nov 9 16 12:53 PM

MissyJG wrote:
I never really believed it could happen.

Nor me. I could envision it was going to be close but what's really thrown me is that it really wasn't. They're showing the stats on the BBC right now and actually, for all the well delivered campaigning and speeches Hilary put in, it didn't seem to connect all that well.    

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Colson

Posts: 18,954 FOMM Extraordinaire

#70 [url]

Nov 9 16 1:02 PM

It wasn't close as far as the Electoral Votes, but I believe Hillary is going to win the popular vote. Which I know is irrelevant, but still it's rare to win the overall vote and still lose. Just like Gore did in 2000.

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carlos b fly

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Posts: 24,481 You'll never be ready. Memba I told you!

#71 [url]

Nov 9 16 1:17 PM

Colson wrote:
It wasn't close as far as the Electoral Votes, but I believe Hillary is going to win the popular vote.

I think she has?
  

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Ginger1.vivamariah19436

Posts: 5,574 High yellow bastard

#72 [url]

Nov 9 16 1:44 PM

Kevon wrote:
I wonder how long it will take him to undo all the progress that has been made? Or has he already?

It's coming.  He gets to pick two Supreme Court Justices.  So Planned Parenthood and the Affordable Care Act is toast.  So is Roe vs Wade, same sex marriage, voter rights, affirmative action, climate change laws. 








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#73 [url]

Nov 9 16 2:11 PM

The only glimmer of hope is that Trump has flip-flopped on nearly all of his stances over the past years, and was actually far more liberal just a few short years ago. All we can do is pray that he lied about a lot of things to get elected and that his former more liberal/sane self with be the one who is actually president.

Meanwhile, Putin just released a letter saying how thrilled he is that Trump won...

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Vincent

Posts: 20,259


Me. I am Vinny...The Shady Wordsmith

#74 [url]

Nov 9 16 2:13 PM

I have no words.

Do any of you live who live in Spain or the UK have any job connects or know anyone who needs a roommate? I teach high school English!

Not even kidding.


_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Vincent, dahhhhling.

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carlos b fly

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Posts: 24,481 You'll never be ready. Memba I told you!

#76 [url]

Nov 9 16 2:44 PM

jamiclever wrote:
The only glimmer of hope is that Trump has flip-flopped on nearly all of his stances over the past years, and was actually far more liberal just a few short years ago. All we can do is pray that he lied about a lot of things to get elected and that his former more liberal/sane self with be the one who is actually president.


In all honesty, this is exactly what I expect to happen. His winning speech began to make me think it and that he's been talking a lot of shite to get voters mobilised and engaged. Part of his success has been making connections with voters from passionate, wild and raw displays that tapped into discord and the lost. In office, I think he'll continue on what we saw today, being a lot more reigned in.

This is obviously a better solution and I hope he manages to deliver on some of his economic promises that can help the poor (the only worthwhile thing he was offering imo).  
  

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carlos b fly

Administrator

Posts: 24,481 You'll never be ready. Memba I told you!

#77 [url]

Nov 9 16 2:47 PM

Vincent wrote:
I have no words.

Do any of you live who live in Spain or the UK have any job connects or know anyone who needs a roommate? I teach high school English!

Not even kidding.


We may have an opening in our European Mariah promotions agency? Following the utter flop not quite as successful fortunes of Infamous, we'll be having some openings soon following some sackings....

image
  

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Stamos

Posts: 4,744 Las cosas se van a poner locas!

#78 [url]

Nov 9 16 4:02 PM

Vincent wrote:
I have no words.

Do any of you live who live in Spain or the UK have any job connects or know anyone who needs a roommate? I teach high school English!

Not even kidding.


Lmao.... Or not. Seriously though, you might wanna think twice about the uk option as things don't look too bright there either with Brexit and all. Besides, u know I got u covered both north of the country and in Spain. Speaking of which, did u hear the Canadian immigration website crashed last night?? #truestory




~~MCinGR  for the nostalgia ~~






Last Edited By: Stamos Nov 9 16 4:24 PM. Edited 2 times.

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MissyJG

Posts: 6,166 Chillin' at FOMM

#80 [url]

Nov 9 16 6:21 PM

I'm avoiding the news for now. It's too depressing to watch.

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