Drake's album is out tomorrow as well so that will deflect hype.
Rihanna is not a draw at Pop radio anymore, so I'm not worried about her having a deal, Calvin ain't a big name either.
I'm not saying I am predicting the song to go to #1, but at the same time it's possible; if it goes to iTunes I can see it selling well (and more than "One Dance" and "Panda" that have been out awhile; plus won't "One Dance" have sales subtracted due to pre-orders?). The radio deal will give the Rihanna/Calvin song 50-60 million impressions if it does similarly to other songs with those deals. That puts it pretty close to what "One Dance" and "Panda" have for impressions. So, it would then be about streaming. If a video also drops tomorrow, we know Rihanna does well in streaming...and a video would help that even more. Look at how "Work" was #1 for 2 full months due to streaming. So, it is possible. But the fact that it's probably more of a pop song does hurt Rihanna at this point, which is an odd reality.